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GDP Adjusted Olympics Medal Tally - Might quieten down a few poms and yanks!!
Now that the Beijing Olympics is done and dusted I wanted to put an economic spin on the results.
You may have become aware of the Sunrise program’s (Channel Seven) Adjusted Medal Tally comparing Australia’s results to the USA based on a per capita basis. The results were very flattering to Australia.
I took this approach a step further and analysed the results of all the countries who won medals at the Olympics comparing the number of medals with the country’s GDP from 2007 measured in US dollars. The GDP data was taken from the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook database - www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/weodata/index.aspx
The top 10 countries on this basis were:
Rank & Billions of GDP per medal
1 Zimbabwe 0.16025
2 Mongolia 0.97625
3 Jamaica 1.018727
4 Armenia 1.329
5 Georgia 1.7155
6 Tajikistan 1.856
7 Kyrgyz Republic 1.874
8 Kenya 2.092786
9 Belarus 2.356474
10 Togo 2.497
Other notable ranks were:
Rank & Billions of GDP per medal
30 New Zealand 14.23789
31 Russia 17.91086
35 Australia 19.75709
41 China 32.50827
52 United Kingdom 58.99085
55 France 64.00638
63 Germany 81.02798
73 United States 125.853
79 Japan 175.3505
85 India 366.315
If we only were to look at gold medal winners the top ten were:
Rank & Billions of GDP per gold medal
1 Zimbabwe 0.641
2 Jamaica 1.867667
3 Mongolia 1.9525
4 Georgia 3.431
5 Ethiopia 4.85775
6 Kenya 5.8598
7 Belarus 11.19325
8 Bahrain 19.66
9 Panama 19.74
10 Ukraine 20.06914
and others of interest:
Rank & Billions of GDP per gold medal
21 New Zealand 42.71367
25 Russia 56.06878
27 China 63.74171
28 Australia 64.91614
35 United Kingdom 145.9247
37 Germany 207.6342
44 France 365.7507
45 United States 384.5507
51 Japan 487.0847
53 India 1098.945
This just puts another perspective on the Olympic results. I wouldn’t be advising using the tables as a source of picking the best performing share markets for the next year. Zimbabwe is not somewhere I would be throwing cash at the moment. It might just be worth keeping an eye out though, as going on the record of forecasters this table could be as useful as some of the more classical methods of forecasting.
One definite use of the data is that it will hopefully quieten down a few of our friendly poms who, according to my sister living in London, are pretty happy with themselves given the success of the UK in the Olympics. (I think unbearable was her term!!)
Not so good when conversing with our friends from across the ditch in New Zealand who yet again seem to have been able to fight above their weight!!
I hope those who are interested in the Olympics have enjoyed the past two weeks and let’s hope the euphoria is contagious for our share markets!
Good luck to our Paralympians!!
Regards,
Scott Keefer
You may have become aware of the Sunrise program’s (Channel Seven) Adjusted Medal Tally comparing Australia’s results to the USA based on a per capita basis. The results were very flattering to Australia.
I took this approach a step further and analysed the results of all the countries who won medals at the Olympics comparing the number of medals with the country’s GDP from 2007 measured in US dollars. The GDP data was taken from the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook database - www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/weodata/index.aspx
The top 10 countries on this basis were:
Rank & Billions of GDP per medal
1 Zimbabwe 0.16025
2 Mongolia 0.97625
3 Jamaica 1.018727
4 Armenia 1.329
5 Georgia 1.7155
6 Tajikistan 1.856
7 Kyrgyz Republic 1.874
8 Kenya 2.092786
9 Belarus 2.356474
10 Togo 2.497
Other notable ranks were:
Rank & Billions of GDP per medal
30 New Zealand 14.23789
31 Russia 17.91086
35 Australia 19.75709
41 China 32.50827
52 United Kingdom 58.99085
55 France 64.00638
63 Germany 81.02798
73 United States 125.853
79 Japan 175.3505
85 India 366.315
If we only were to look at gold medal winners the top ten were:
Rank & Billions of GDP per gold medal
1 Zimbabwe 0.641
2 Jamaica 1.867667
3 Mongolia 1.9525
4 Georgia 3.431
5 Ethiopia 4.85775
6 Kenya 5.8598
7 Belarus 11.19325
8 Bahrain 19.66
9 Panama 19.74
10 Ukraine 20.06914
and others of interest:
Rank & Billions of GDP per gold medal
21 New Zealand 42.71367
25 Russia 56.06878
27 China 63.74171
28 Australia 64.91614
35 United Kingdom 145.9247
37 Germany 207.6342
44 France 365.7507
45 United States 384.5507
51 Japan 487.0847
53 India 1098.945
This just puts another perspective on the Olympic results. I wouldn’t be advising using the tables as a source of picking the best performing share markets for the next year. Zimbabwe is not somewhere I would be throwing cash at the moment. It might just be worth keeping an eye out though, as going on the record of forecasters this table could be as useful as some of the more classical methods of forecasting.
One definite use of the data is that it will hopefully quieten down a few of our friendly poms who, according to my sister living in London, are pretty happy with themselves given the success of the UK in the Olympics. (I think unbearable was her term!!)
Not so good when conversing with our friends from across the ditch in New Zealand who yet again seem to have been able to fight above their weight!!
I hope those who are interested in the Olympics have enjoyed the past two weeks and let’s hope the euphoria is contagious for our share markets!
Good luck to our Paralympians!!
Regards,
Scott Keefer
Tags: forecasting
Views: 10
Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Matthew Reader on -
Quieten down Poms - is that possible? ;)
Nice stats Scott - I've got to say, I'm bloody impressed!
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Permalink Reply by Miffy on -
Too true Matthew!!!
I also agree that this is impressive stuff Scott. Love your work.
Personally, I've enjoyed the Olympics immensely - it's been great viewing, with the whole gamut of human emotions on display. While I love to see Aussies win, I'm not overly patriotic so I can enjoy others winning just as much. While we're not all phsyically as capable as the incredible athletes on display over the past few weeks, if we could apply a little of the determination and effort to our own personal and business lives that they apply to their sport we would all be the better for it. Inspirational stuff.
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Permalink Reply by Pete McMurphy on -
Interesting stats Scott - nice take on events. I'm with you, let's hope the markets pick up over the next couple of months and we don't see some post-Olympic blues from China.
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Permalink Reply by AlRow on -
Very nice indeed.
However, what if we go down the path of medals per acre of land area? Oz may be in a smidgen of trouble then and, that is even before we take into account our 200km ocean economic zone
Well, why not ? One is as good as the other and no worse than the article in the Courier Mailusing medals per population
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Permalink Reply by Russell Forlong on -
You can crunch numbers all you like but it still comes down to the individual athlete and how good he or she was. The better man or woman always wins.
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Permalink Reply by Kbot on -
It's true Russell, it does come down the the individual, as with most of success in life.
What amazes me is how every four years records are broken, either Olympic or World Records - like by Phelps & Bolt. Surely a day must come where the body simply can't go any faster, or perhaps we'll start measuring things in 100,000s of a second, so the incremental improvements will be there, only much smaller...
kbot
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